Metabolic Ledger

GLP-1 Results Projector: What the Trials Actually Showed

Most weight-loss simulators show you a best case. This one shows you the published trial mean for semaglutide and tirzepatide applied to your starting weight — with the spread the trials actually reported, including the people who lost little or nothing.

How to read this honestly

  • The curve is the published mean trajectory from STEP 1 (semaglutide 2.4 mg, 68 weeks) or SURMOUNT-1 (tirzepatide, 72 weeks) — trials that paired weekly injections with structured diet and activity support.
  • A mean is not a forecast. The responder table shows the real spread: in every arm, some participants lost far more than the average and some lost almost nothing.
  • Trial participants were adults with obesity, or overweight plus a weight-related condition, and without diabetes — results in other groups differ (in trials of people with type 2 diabetes, average loss is consistently smaller).
  • Weight regain after stopping is the norm, not the exception — see the off-ramp guides.

Related: Zepbound vs Mounjaro results, semaglutide options compared, and what happens after GLP-1.